危言耸听还是提前防范？下个8级强震在加州

Researchers analysed the latest data from the state's complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.
研究人员对美国加利福尼亚州活跃又复杂的地质断层系统进行分析，并采用新方法，将数据转换成地震几率。
The estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% to about 7.0%, they say.
结果表明加州在未来30年发生8级或以上地震的可能性从4.7%上升到了7%。
'We are fortunate that seismic activity in California has been relatively low over the past century,' said Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center and a co-author of the study.
该项研究的作者之一、南加州地震中心主任汤姆·乔登说：“过去100年间，加州地震活动相对较低，实属幸运。”
'But we know that tectonic forces are continually tightening the springs of the San Andreas fault system, making big quakes inevitable.
“但我们知道，地球陆地板块力量一直在绷紧圣安地列斯断层系统，这让大规模的地震无可避免。”
'The UCERF3 model provides our leaders and the public with improved information about what to expect, so that we can better prepare.'
“UCERF3 模型为我们的领导人及公众提供了可靠的信息，为我们预测可能发生的地震，并帮助我们更好的做准备工作。”
The Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or UCERF3, improves upon previous models by incorporating the latest data on the state's complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.
UCERF3即第三版统一加州地震断裂预测模型是对之前版本的更新，它整合了国家地质断层系统的最新数据，同时使用了最新的方法将这些数据转化为地震几率。
The study confirms many previous findings, sheds new light on how the future earthquakes will likely be distributed across the state and estimates how big those earthquakes might be.
该项研究证实了之前的诸多发现，对未来美国可能发生地震的区域给出了一定启示，同时预测了震级的大小。

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